S.Ovcharenko. The role of social forecast now

Therefore, in the new conditions, being a bad predictor is very dangerous. This builds on the danger of achievments of a technological revolution. Therefore, any system theory makes sense if it can give predictions in the domains of the social aftermath. What in medicine is called diagnosis. If in medicine it is allocated in a special revered area, like intelligence data in the army, so here’s the forecast in any theory. If a person on the basis of some kind of knowledge can make predictions – then the forecast can work for the forecaster. And then the prolonged process of theorizing does not make sense. The result of theorizing is important.

Soviet power said that there is nothing to say, but it is necessary to do. This means that you must act in the interests of others. If you try to make yourself a prognosis – you try to act in your own interests as selfish individualist. Fascism, communism, Islamic extremism is a criminal in power. Criminal, which takes hold of social processes. Until this time, criminals have always been marginalized, and in these centuries they were at the head of the social process. They had to later civilize, it was necessary to maintain the content of this system.

Therefore, they were forced at the same time to generate knowledgeable, able and destroy them. In the Soviet Union it was Rabfaki (Workers’ Faculties). To each time, people who master the profession did not have time to use it for themselves. The fact that a man in the first generation is able to learn only abstract knowledge in words’ forms, but is not able to use them in forms of real things practically. Practically you can use only the knowledge that is received by education in the family and in the environment in which this family exists. Not otherwise.

In order not to allow the reverse rollover into the criminal environment, the West beat off the attacks and found a mechanism for counteraction and protection. Catalonia remained in the composition of Spain. But the third world is not restricted in its aspirations. This post-communist world, the Chinese and Islamic world. It is good that the Islamic world can not find a common language both within itself and with the Chinese world. The Chinese world looks at Russia as a predator on a herbivore. China tends to absorb space. The Chinese threat is underestimated because of the number of people able to settle on the Earth with their civilizational algorithms or paradigms.

It’s good that the Islamic world does not have a base country, like Russia or China. The West has a base region such as the United States. At the forefront of the struggle – this is Israel, who has worked all the methods from the invasions of the barbarians. This is in the Middle East against the radical Islamists. In Israel, the processes with the extremists are regulated. Lee Kuan Yew took the officers from Israel in due time. They were better instructors than officers of other countries.

We see that the tasks with forecasts are not only more complicated, but they are on the other hand, and they are more simple. There is a huge motivation to understand everything correctly and make conclusions in time. This is the practical significance of the humanitarian theory, historical, legal, psychological, and cultural.

That is, the more developed technology – the less it is noticeable, no matter how paradoxical. It increases the significance of the risks of the human factor. The earth “contracts” and all the contradictions of any country can be seized by other countries. All problems of the third world can already be thrown into Europe

If earlier an African left his continent irrevocably, now the continent is standing behind his back. He approached Europe and the West. And this is a huge problem, because the main opponent is not extremists, they are just the tip of the iceberg. And the main thing – this composition of people who live there and do not violate the law. They are the most dangerous for a long period. Because they unnoticeably introduce, inject an old, backward cultural code, which Europe has already experienced a long time ago. And now we have to fight and flounder with this.

To do this, one must realize that cultures are not compatible with each other in principle. Not because people are bad, but because the very code of life, the way of life to each other is irreconcilably the opposite. Someone has to oust someone. Dialogue is impossible. Although Ayn Rand believed that there could be a cultural melting pot. But it does not work well if you take the rules of the culture that comes to you. If this bearer of alien culture came to you, then it’s denote it was bad there in their base country, where it’s hard to live. Because they had moved to the West, where they live better.

They arrived with their cultural infection. Therefore, they inevitably contribute to controlled chaos from the side of opponents of the West. Then they begin with the extension of grievances and requests for recognition of their cultural and religious identity. “They are offended, they are not respected, their customs are not respected.” We must say: “Sorry, but your customs drove you here.” It is not necessary to enter into discussions with them, in polemics. There is no place for arguments, where there are antagonistic contradictions.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *