S Ovcharenko. Predictions and the Crisis of Contemporary Society. Part 1

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(Exerpt from the book In the Human Desert)

The basic meaning of any social theory is related to its prognostic function, to use it in political and cultural practice, especially in times of great technological and social revolutions.

Russian philosophy, in a broad sense and even European philosophy, at the turn of the nine teenth and twentieth centuries did not yield successful theoretical and practical predictions. It is difficult even to imagine that these social dregs of society can practically realize everything in the political life of Russia, Germany and some countries of Central Europe as a result of the creation of a civilizational black hole.

Gustav Shpet, an outstanding but yet forgotten Russian philosopher, also turned out to be an unsuccessful forecaster despite his exclusive creative abilities. The same deal was with also other Russian philosophers and sociologists. None could predict these so catastrophic aftermath of the grandiose Communist revolution.

All the theories of socialism as a bright future have decisively depreciated. After a hundred years, we can see similar historical processes, and we must be much more penetrating than before, a hundred years ago. It’s time to come to substantive conclusions about the close connection between intellectual, technological and social interdependence. This means the decisive influence of scientific and technical problems on social processes and the place and fate of an individual. In addition, we must assess the significance of cultural inheritance within this individual. Otherwise, in the near future we will be able to achieve a new variant of unforeseen social dystopia.

Therefore, now, in the new historical conditions, to be a bad predictor, it is quite dangerous for the near future. This threat is based on the danger of the reverse side of achievements during the fourth technological revolution that means the psychological and social consequences of this worldwide technological revolution. Therefore, any theory of the system makes sense if it can give forecasts in areas of social results after using technological advances. What in medicine is called a diagnosis.

If in medicine the forecast is allocated in a special revered area, such as intelligence data in the army, so the forecast in any scientific theory. If a person can make predictions on the basis of some knowledge, then the forecast can work both for the prognosticator and for the society itself. Other-wise, the long process of theorizing does not make sense. The result of theorizing is important for social practice, especially when it comes to unexpected actions by groups in estranged enclaves within European society.

Communists, the Soviet government has always said that “we must not speak, but do.” Such a profound alienation of countercultural groups presupposes a strong tendency of moral and psycho-logical relativism to the sustainable rules of Western, European society. It is necessary to remember this long distance between the cultures of people who have settled and live together. Well-educated people in pre-revolutionary Russia (before 1917) ignored this absolute cultural distance between social classes in pre-revolutionary Russia. As a result, they lost everything.

This meant that they sacrificed their own interests and benefits for the sake of the interests of others at the cost of their own destiny. If you try to make a prediction – you are trying to act in your own interests “as a selfish individualist.” In truth, this is in the sense of Ayn Rand’s interpretation. Fascism, communism, Islamic extremism are regimes that reject our right to follow our own interests, to put forward our own goals that could counteract the interests of the narrow ruling circle of the country as a closed system. This turning point from the interests of other people to the interests and goals of the individual at the scale of the whole society is the decisive turning point by which these closed enclaves try to prevent.

It should be noted that the mentality of the post-totalitarian population exists in a chaotic state and an exclusive dependence on the external management of state power. This entails a great weak-ness of the average national personality with the inability to formulate its own vital needs and goals. This overwhelming majority of the population was in deep historical perplexity. A strictly vertical social structure inevitably led to chaos in horizontal relations and disappearance, primitivization of social life as a whole. Of course, the weakening of the vertical state power causes the opposite strengthening of horizontal ties, relations within the national society. Of course, this process could not happen automatically due to historical cultural lag in post-communist countries. This is an im-portant point of our examination to understand the specifics of post-communist development.

The moods, impressions of this above-mentioned majority were a reliable basis for post-communist oligarchic state power with a viscous character of popular thinking. The same situation we see in countries with harsh religious regimes. Considering the events in the “third world”, we must constantly consider these circumstances. Of course, these backward societies regularly displace a significant part of the population from the countries of origin. We need to determine the place and role of a larger part of the population of the West, which is losing the stable status quo, which they previously reached during a long historical era because of these cultural contradictions.

The main obstacles and threats occur inside and outside the production system as an extremely unfavorable phenomenon for the white working class. Especially this applies to employees who have not graduated from college. The huge flows of migrants with low education and low cultural education intermix with the problematic workers of the host countries, create many problems for the near future.

In this context, it is necessary to determine the place and role of the so-called lumpen proletari-at, which replenishes the ranks of reactionary political parties and social movements that predomi-nantly play a destructive role in national cultures. Now we can see the acceleration of anti-Western sentiments and ideologies that deny the importance of the right to private property and the individu-al’s right to an individual as something useless or meaningless. Paradoxically, this phenomenon stems from the most effective result of the technological revolution, which can arise only from the regime of free private property and the true rights of the individual, which is still underestimated as something not reflected in our consciousness of the average Western personality.

In order to understand the social and psychological threats of this social retreat, we should real-ize that the key change of the lumpen-proletariat has been taking place since the existence of a closed communist system in which the lumpen-proletariat passes from the marginal into the central place of social life. This interdependence with the opposite results should be investigated to avoid similar consequences that were one hundred years ago. We should remember that our predecessors could not anticipate the long-term consequences of technical achievements that recreated the social structure of these given countries.

Unexpected challenges inevitably distorted the stable existence of traditional society and increased the layer not only of the creative minority but also of the “declassed” population that cannot find a place for prosperous life. Unable people can not cope with this new historical reality be-cause of the former indifference to new hidden tendencies in modern reality. Of course, they tend to fall into the social underground as an infantile part of a minority of society with destructive intentions and habits.

Until times of a closed society, criminals have always been marginalized, but since the emergence of a closed society in these centuries, they very often turned to the leading role in the social process in a given country. It used to be that they were supposed to be civilized later, so it was necessary to preserve the existence of this historical experimental system. Contrary to this, the gradual primitivization of the human personality was a prerequisite for the existence of a closed society as such. After a spontaneous collapse, this infantile disoriented lumpen proletariat continues to exist as a destructive factor in post-communist society. They deliberately try to introduce their cultural code into the body of more civilized societies. According to Marx, “lumpen-poletariat” is a declassed group in the society, as a product of the social decay.

Human nature is always much more conservative than any important changes in society. Of course, the new spontaneous civil society sees Western society as a stabilizing factor for a new civil society in the post-communist world. On the contrary, the oligarchy is trying to undermine, overthrow the foundations of Western society in order to perpetuate its vicious existence. Western society can not avoid these contradictory influences. Moreover, in the conditions of the existence of modern means of communication and transport. Behind every step along the path of technological progress follows a temporary significant retreat in social evolution. Because of this confusion of social strata, we inevitably come to this phenomenon. This entails a current historical period, similar to the previous centuries ago.

Of course, sharp changes and problems attract and shape cultural priorities even in this chaotic crowd and generate sporadic interests in those areas that previously were completely indifferent within this chaotic majority, especially the lumpen proletarian part of this majority. The viscous character of people’s mentality caused the slowness of this restructuring of post-communist society into the state of civil society. This piecemeal evolution from a chaotic state to some structured system was predominantly subconscious under the influence of external forces.

Therefore, they were forced simultaneously to create the prerequisites for a new reality and to destroy these small achievements, as it was in the Soviet era. In the previous Soviet period, the ruling circle of the closed society tried to exclude the transfer of intellectual and material inheritance within the family. They step by step formed an isolated social atom, absolutely dependent on external state power. An intellectual should be only in the first generation, interrupting inheritance in the second, third and subsequent generations. This same tradition of the post-communist oligarchy continues, but in a much weaker measure.

That is why in the Soviet Union were created Rabfaki (workers’ faculties). Every time people who master a profession did not have time to use it for themselves. The fact that man was in the first generation could only study abstract knowledge in the forms of words, but can not use them in the forms of real things, practically in order to create something in reality. Thus, you can use only the knowledge gained as a result of education in the family and in the environment in which this family exists. Not otherwise.

All hypotheses of the Futurists face natural limitations that are associated with the lack of proper upbringing and education within the family and the surrounding environment. We must bear in mind the inner narrowness of the human psyche and the consciousness of this average person. Here we can and must find out the main contradictions and confrontations in the modern world between the nature and culture of this individual and her environment. The last negative result of this internal significant clash is seen in the typical figure of a lumpen-proletarian, declassed man as a result of social putrefaction.

In order not to allow the reverse tipping to the criminal environment, the West repulsed the attacks and found a mechanism for counteraction and protection. Catalonia remained in the composition of Spain. But the non-Western world is not limited in its aspirations. This means the postcommunist world, the Chinese and Islamic worlds. It seems good that the Islamic world can not find a common language both within itself and with the Chinese world. For example, the Chinese world views Russia as a predator on herbivores. China seeks to absorb living space with “peaceful” immigration flows. The Chinese world threat has always been underestimated by its ability to settle on Earth with their own civilizational interests and special rules, displacing other peoples with a different way of life.

In the Islamic world there is no basic country, such as Russia or China. The West has a base region, such as the United States. At the forefront of this resistance on the opposite side of the world is Israel, which has developed many methods from the invasions of the extremists. Israel is at the forefront of this struggle against a barbaric world that still can not adapt to genuine modernization. We must identify the great complexity of realizing the achievements of much more developed societies because of the internal laws of human nature and the cultural development of the cumulative personality in traditional countries and societies.

Paul Howe writes about the decreasing of confidence in the basic social institutions of the United States. In addition, he discovers a weakened faith in the American dream because of the frequent failures of the life scenario. The abrupt changes and challenges of the technological revolution are pushing huge masses to search for sustainable points in this unexpectedly unknown world in their own developed countries.

Even fruitful intentions and projects very often cannot be perceived at the time. The main obstacles that we can see in cultural inertial processes at a historic turning point. Namely, we must take into account the invaluable experience of confrontation with religious extremists and their Russian allies.

In Israel, “relations with extremists” are “regulated” by frequent successful armed expulsion of the invaders. That’s why Lee Kuan Yew invited officers from Israel in his time. They were better instructors than officers from other countries. We see that the problems with forecasts are not only more complicated, but, on the other hand, they are simpler. There is a huge motivation to understand everything correctly and draw conclusions in time. This is the practical significance of the theory, historical, legal, psychological and cultural.

That is, more advanced technologies – the less it is noticeable, regardless of how paradoxical it is. But this accelerates the significance of the risks of the human factor. The main threats and dangers we must see inside the human subconscious and consciousness, habits and customs. It is right because at the moment of an imaginary confluence of nations and states, we achieve the incredible consequences of intercultural confrontations both between national cultures, civilizations, and within nations because of irreconcilable contradictions between social strata. Technological prosperity accelerates strong internal cultural conflicts.

The earth “shrinks” into a small village, and all the contradictions of any country can be affected by other countries. Accordingly, all the problems of the developing world can already concern Europe and other countries of Western civilization. In any case, any person should reconsider his scale of values.

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